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The never-ending wrangling over interests rates
All indications are that the inflation cycle bottomed out in September 2010 and the current inflation rate of 3,7% is already half a percentage point above its low. It thus logically follows that for...
View ArticleMPC prediction release
The SARB MPC meeting starts on Tuesday afternoon with the results expected on Thursday afternoon. A week or so ago, the governor created a stir in the market with some remarks she made regarding...
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Investors need to make their money work in low interest rate environments
While the lowest interest rates in 38 years may be providing welcome relief to the over-indebted consumer, many cash flush investors find themselves having to settle for lower income returns. In an...
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Is SA’s macroeconomic policy still on track?
As a result of the global financial crisis in 2008, macroeconomic policy makers faced new challenges that required them to think outside the box. These challenges differed from country to country,...
View ArticleInterest rates may be on hold for now
The rate hike and currency weakness in January saw both the markets and economists calling for an aggressive series of rate hikes. At this time, the forward interest rate market was pricing in six...
View ArticleReserve Bank likely to take its lead on interest rates from US
We have seen a period of low inflation caused mostly by oil price weakness in the latter stages of last year and the beginning of 2015. The latest consumer price inflation (CPI) reading at 4% is well...
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SARB holds interest rates steady, but paves the way for hikes
The hawkish tone of the statement, however, led to a temporary strengthening of the currency from 11.76 against the US dollar prior to the governor’s speech, to 11.71 just before the rate announcement,...
View ArticleUnchanged interest rates no surprise
The decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to leave short-term interest rates unchanged at 5.75% at its third meeting of the year comes as no surprise...
View ArticleWaiting for Greece
First, there has been a palpable pick-up in US economic activity after a ‘soft patch’, which has implications for interest rates and corporate earnings. Second, China’s fiscal and monetary policy...
View ArticleInvestors need to gear up for rising interest rates
We’re entering an important post-financial crisis phase where interest rates are unlikely to provide a tailwind to inflating asset prices. Record-low interest rates have resulted in equity and fixed...
View ArticleShut down, locked down, going down
It remains difficult to describe the extent of damage being done to the global economy, quite deliberately, by governments seeking to contain the spread of the coronavirus. The post Shut down, locked...
View ArticleThe question is not if the MPC will cut interest rates – but how much?
By: Dr Adrian Saville, Chief Executive, Cannon Asset Managers A sharp fall in the rate of consumer price inflation has defanged what was initially paraded as “aggressive” monetary policy action...
View ArticleInterest rates on hold at 3.5%, but committee preferences remain mixed
By: Sanisha Packirisamy, Economist at Momentum Investments and Herman van Papendorp, Head of Investment Research & Asset Allocation at Momentum Investments. Highlights The South African Reserve...
View ArticleWhat to make of negative interest rates
Carmen Nel, Economist and Macro Strategist, Matrix Fund Managers A decade ago, few of us would have contemplated the idea of negative monetary policy rates, let alone negative market-determined bond...
View ArticleCan we expect an interest rate hike in November?
Thalia Petousis, fund manager at Allan Gray Interest rates in South Africa are poised for lift-off, but the South African Reserve bank (SARB) is reticent to provide guidance. This is the view of Thalia...
View ArticleThe divided Committee draws a line in the sand, but gradually
Thalia Petousis, portfolio manager at Allan Gray At the November meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), South Africa’s repo rate was raised by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.75%. The recent...
View ArticleStriking the right balance: the interest rate outlook
Carmen Nel, Economist and Macro Strategist, Matrix Fund Managers Monetary policy normalisation is set to be a major theme for global financial markets in 2022 Normalisation means different things in...
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